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What the pick is
Value pays more than its chance is worth
Small value a slight edge, nothing more
Likely wins often, fairly priced, no edge
No value only inside bigger ideas: fair, but not a pick alone
Our take
Play it it's going well for us lately
Play it small fine, but keep the stake low
We'd skip it this league or bet type is cold
The bar
the chance, and the red mark is what the price needs to break even
We're watching these, but no bookmaker has priced them properly yet. They're not picks, and they only become one if they pass every check once the prices are in.
Ready-made from today's picks, for days when you'd rather not build your own. They're a starting point: take one as it is, swap a leg, or leave them all.
Worth knowing: an accumulator only pays if every pick wins. More picks means a bigger price, but also more ways for one of them to let you down. Once an idea is published it's locked: we never swap a leg or post a "better" version later, because you might already have it on.
Every settled pick, the losers included, at 1 unit a pick and the typical bookmaker's price. Nothing gets deleted, nothing gets quietly edited.
| Date | Match | Pick | Chance | Price | Result | Units |
|---|
| Date | Idea | Legs | Price | Result | Units |
|---|
Ideas are counted separately from single picks, so neither record flatters the other.
On the first of every month we go through the month before line by line: every pick, its price, its result and how it compared with the closing price. Then we write down what we're changing. That's how the picks get better, and it's all public.
It counts every pick we posted, all of them, because that's the only honest way to find out what's working and what isn't. A bad month in one league, a kind of bet that keeps letting us down: the audit is where we catch it and fix it.
It's not a picture of how you should bet. Nobody needs to play every pick, and playing all of them blindly is usually the worst way to use them. Our take on each pick, and your own judgement, are there for a reason.
| Month | Picks | Won–lost | Hit rate | vs expected | Return | Units | Beat the close | Best league | Toughest league |
|---|
Every league we follow, what we pick in it and how it's going this month. When a league goes cold for us, you'll see it here first.
| League | Picks | Won–lost | Hit rate | Return | Markets | Our view |
|---|
A few habits that get the most out of the picks, whether you follow one a week or most days.
You don't have to bet everything we post. Read the chance, the price and our take, and choose the ones you'd back yourself.
"We'd skip it" doesn't mean the pick is wrong. It means this league or this kind of bet has been rough for us lately, and we'd rather tell you than hide it.
Every pick shows the chance it needs to break even. If your bookmaker pays less than our price, the bet is worth less too. Shopping around for the best price adds up.
Bet the same small slice of your betting money on each pick, around 1 to 2%. Doubling up after a loss is how good months turn into bad ones.
Accumulator ideas are there for days when you don't want to build your own. Change a leg, drop one, or skip them. They're not a set menu.
Ten picks prove nothing either way. The record and the monthly audits are where the real story is, and they're always open.
KickTrace is built for people who already bet around $50 a pick or more. That's where it starts to be worth the effort: at that size, a slightly better price, a skipped weak spot and steady stakes add up to real money over a season. Smaller stakes work exactly the same way, they just turn it into more of a hobby than a plan.
One thing we'd never suggest: raising your stakes to reach a number on a website. Bet what you can afford, and nothing more.
Behind the site is our own analysis system. It looks at each match in four steps and only calls something value when the numbers back it up, which on most days means likely picks rather than big promises.
Prices from a range of bookmakers, with their margin taken out, give the starting chance for every outcome.
Team ratings, expected goals and form only get a say in the leagues where two years of week-by-week testing show they help.
Is the best price good enough, do the models agree, has the money moved against it, and has this kind of pick paid before at real prices?
Picks go out before kickoff with a timestamp, get settled from the results and end up in the monthly audit.
Most tipsters pick a team and then hunt for reasons. Ours starts with what the betting market already knows and only disagrees when it has evidence.
Every model is tested on two seasons of real matches and real bookmaker prices. If it doesn't beat the market in a league, it gets no say there.
Plenty of days have no real value. Instead of inventing some, the system says so, and calls the rest likely picks.
Picks are locked the moment they're published, settled from official results and audited every month, losers included.
| Chance | Wins and losses | Loses | Break-even | In 100 bets | Losing run to expect |
|---|
A 75% pick still loses about one bet in four, and over a hundred bets a run of three losses in a row is normal, not a sign that anything's broken. Take a pick below its break-even price often enough and it costs you money, even though it usually wins.
I'm Filip. I started KickTrace because I got tired of tipsters who post their winners and quietly forget the rest. Here every pick goes up before kickoff with its chance and its price, and every result stays on the page, good or bad.
The picks come from an analysis system I built. It compares each match with what the betting market thinks, checks a handful of rating models, and tests itself on two seasons of past matches before it's allowed an opinion. Most days it finds likely picks rather than value, and it tells you which is which.
Being honest about results is the whole point. Losing weeks get the same space as winning ones, the audit shows every line, and when something isn't working we say so, change it, and show you whether the change helped.
No, and anyone who says theirs are is selling something. A pick is a chance. The record and the monthly audits show exactly how they've done.
Not at all, and we'd advise against it. Pick the ones you like. Our take ("Play it", "Play it small", "We'd skip it") helps you decide, and How to use it has a few habits worth keeping.
Because bookmakers' prices are usually right. Value needs the best price to pay more than the chance is worth, and that doesn't happen every day. A likely pick wins often and is fairly priced, but it has no edge, which is why we never call it safe.
The price is what bookmakers typically pay. The fair price is what the chance is worth without their margin. If you can get a price above fair, you're getting value.
Only if you want to. They're built from the day's picks for convenience. Building your own from the same picks is perfectly fine, and so is skipping them. Ours stay exactly as published.
Late in the evening, usually between 23:00 and 01:00 Central European Time, for the day ahead. Always well before kickoff, and once they're up they don't change.
No. A published pick or accumulator idea is locked, because you might already have it on. There's never a second or "better" version of a pick, and the audit counts exactly what was posted.
Because we look at more than the price. If a league or a kind of bet has been going badly for us this month, we'd rather tell you than let you find out the hard way.
Divide 1 by the price. At 1.80 a pick has to win 55.6% of the time just to break even. The converter under How it works does it for you.
Yours. The site uses your device's time zone, and you can switch it at the bottom of the menu.
What we keep about you, how we look after it, and how to keep betting the fun kind of thing.
Very little. An account needs an email address, a password and your subscription status, and that's all we store. Your password is hashed before it's saved, which means it's turned into a code that can't be turned back. Nobody on our side can read it, including us.
Payments go through a payment provider. Card details never reach our servers, so they can't leak from them either.
There's one cookie, and its only job is keeping you signed in. We don't run advertising trackers, we don't build a profile of you, and we don't sell or share data with anyone. The time zone you pick for kickoff times is saved in your own browser, not with us.
The whole site runs over an encrypted connection, and a strict security policy means its pages only ever load our own files. If you find a weakness, email us. We'll fix it quickly and thank you publicly if you'd like that.
You can ask to see what we hold about you, to correct it, to get a copy, or to have your account and data deleted. Write to us from the address on your account. EU data protection law gives us 30 days to answer, and we're usually a lot quicker than that.
KickTrace is for adults only, 18 and over. Betting should cost you what a night out costs, an amount you've decided on in advance and won't miss. Set that limit at the start of the month, and use the deposit limits and time-outs your bookmaker offers.
The next pick doesn't owe you anything, so never bet more to win back a loss. If you notice you're betting more than you meant to, borrowing to bet, or keeping it from people close to you, take a break and talk to someone. Your country's gambling helpline is free and confidential, and calling it is a sensible thing to do, not a dramatic one.
Picks are an opinion, not financial advice. Prices move, so check your bookmaker's before you bet. Past results don't promise future ones.
Questions, a result you think we settled wrong, an idea for the site: we read everything.
Email us
kicktrace@proton.meWe usually answer within two days. Our mail runs on Proton, which is end-to-end encrypted.